This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)
If you apply the following Four Essential “Rules Of Risk” you will become a far more effective Risk Manager and Captain.
In addition, these “Rules” will assist, guide and help you to exercise good judgment and formulate sound decisions.
1. Do not accept unnecessary risk.
The key word in this rule is “unnecessary”. An unnecessary risk is any risk that if taken, will not contribute meaningfully to your flights’ accomplishment. Captains who take unnecessary risk are probably gambling with crew and passenger lives.
Aviation is by its’ very nature an inherently risky business. You face and accept risk all the time, whether you realize it or not.
You need to be constantly Balancing The Risk – achieving the “Risk Neutral” state, which is not overly “safe” (low opportunities) and not overly “dangerous” (high opportunities).
Risk properly managed is acceptable.
2. Accept risk when the benefits outweigh the costs.
Nothing in aviation is risk free and we choose certain options that contain an element of risk because there is an opportunity or benefit to be gained. This needs to be balanced against the probability of the occurrence and the possible costs or severity of the risk.
Again you need to be Balancing The Risk. You walk the fine line of being either too risk aversive (low opportunity, but possibly overly safe) or being too risky (high opportunity, but possibly dangerous).
If you are faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself “When is the success of the task not worth the risk?”
3. Make Risk Decisions At The Appropriate Level.
What is the right level? It is the level where the decision maker has the experience and maturity to make a good decision.
Normally, this is the Captain’s job as most times you cannot defer or transfer your risk management duties due to time constraints or a lack of resources.
However, you don’t need to make all the hard decisions solely yourself. You can involve other external agencies (e.g. Aircraft Engineering Specialists, Dispatchers, Fleet Managers, Operations Managers or whoever has Operational Control of your Airlines’ aircraft). The real trick is to assign the risk accountability at the lowest possible level i.e. to the person closest to the action with the best SA, knowledge of the situation and experience.
Remember that ultimately the buck stops with you. As the Captain you are the final authority and are responsible for the safe operation and conduct of the flight.
4. Integrate Risk Management Into Planning And Execution At All Levels.
Risk management is an integral part of the planning and execution of flight operations.
You need to constantly be assessing, managing and balancing risk during all phases of flight. This includes pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight.
Risk management is an important part of the Captain’s role and you need to involve your entire team at all levels – both on the ground and in the air. This entire “team” includes not only your flight and cabin crew, but ground engineers, dispatchers, operations personnel, ATC, airline management and cargo loading, passenger handling and traffic ground staff.
If you apply the following Four Essential “Rules Of Risk” you will become a far more effective Risk Manager and Captain.
In addition, these “Rules” will assist, guide and help you to exercise good judgment and formulate sound decisions.
1. Do not accept unnecessary risk.
The key word in this rule is “unnecessary”. An unnecessary risk is any risk that if taken, will not contribute meaningfully to your flights’ accomplishment. Captains who take unnecessary risk are probably gambling with crew and passenger lives.
Aviation is by its’ very nature an inherently risky business. You face and accept risk all the time, whether you realize it or not.
You need to be constantly Balancing The Risk – achieving the “Risk Neutral” state, which is not overly “safe” (low opportunities) and not overly “dangerous” (high opportunities).
- There is no advantage to accepting a course of action that results in a new, increased or unjustifiable risk if there are no meaningful benefits to be derived.
- Risk should not be greater than the undertaking.
- If it is not worth doing safely, then it is probably not worth doing at all.
2. Accept risk when the benefits outweigh the costs.
Nothing in aviation is risk free and we choose certain options that contain an element of risk because there is an opportunity or benefit to be gained. This needs to be balanced against the probability of the occurrence and the possible costs or severity of the risk.
Again you need to be Balancing The Risk. You walk the fine line of being either too risk aversive (low opportunity, but possibly overly safe) or being too risky (high opportunity, but possibly dangerous).
If you are faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself “When is the success of the task not worth the risk?”
3. Make Risk Decisions At The Appropriate Level.
What is the right level? It is the level where the decision maker has the experience and maturity to make a good decision.
Normally, this is the Captain’s job as most times you cannot defer or transfer your risk management duties due to time constraints or a lack of resources.
However, you don’t need to make all the hard decisions solely yourself. You can involve other external agencies (e.g. Aircraft Engineering Specialists, Dispatchers, Fleet Managers, Operations Managers or whoever has Operational Control of your Airlines’ aircraft). The real trick is to assign the risk accountability at the lowest possible level i.e. to the person closest to the action with the best SA, knowledge of the situation and experience.
Remember that ultimately the buck stops with you. As the Captain you are the final authority and are responsible for the safe operation and conduct of the flight.
4. Integrate Risk Management Into Planning And Execution At All Levels.
Risk management is an integral part of the planning and execution of flight operations.
You need to constantly be assessing, managing and balancing risk during all phases of flight. This includes pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight.
Risk management is an important part of the Captain’s role and you need to involve your entire team at all levels – both on the ground and in the air. This entire “team” includes not only your flight and cabin crew, but ground engineers, dispatchers, operations personnel, ATC, airline management and cargo loading, passenger handling and traffic ground staff.
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