This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)
Hazard
Any current real or potential condition that can overtly or covertly lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event.
A hazard is the SOURCE of risk.
A hazard is always a PRESENT event – it is what is happening or affecting you right now.
Risk
The probability and severity of a loss linked to a hazard that is not adequately controlled or eliminated.
Risk is always a FUTURE event – the hazard has yet to occur or be experienced. Risk is a potential hazard.
Risk Formula
You will never be able to accurately quantify the product of the various risk factors (at least not in flight when you will definitely lack the time, resources and brain power).
The Risk Formula is a guide for you to “estimate” or assess the risk of a particular situation when you do your Risk Assessment, with the limited information available to you, the lack of resources and the time constraints imposed on you in-flight.
RISK = SEVERITY x PROBABILITY x EXPOSURE
Severity is the extent of a possible loss. The severity lies in a range from a slight, minor loss to a catastrophic, total loss.
Probability is the likelihood that a hazard will or could potentially cause a loss.
Exposure is the amount of times an event (usually a repeated event) occurs, or the length of time an event is experienced.
Risk Assessment
The detection of hazards and the application of “measurement” to the level of risk that they represent (see Risk Formula).
Risk Management
The process of defining and controlling risk.
A major function of your role as the Captain.
Risk Neutral
Where the risk being accepted meets the requirements of the desired action.
Low Risk is low opportunity and may be overly “safe”.
High Risk is high opportunity and may be overly “dangerous”.
Risk Neutral is somewhere between these two extremes and is dependant on the actual situation and your perception of the risk involved.
Balancing The Risk
Risk Assessment and Management such that a Risk Neutral situation is obtained for the current situation. Read about Balancing The Risk here.
Gambling
Proceeding with little or no Risk Management process.
Usually associated with taking unnecessary chances as a result of poor or no judgement and unnecessary risk. Safety is usually degraded.
Hazard
Any current real or potential condition that can overtly or covertly lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event.
A hazard is the SOURCE of risk.
A hazard is always a PRESENT event – it is what is happening or affecting you right now.
Risk
The probability and severity of a loss linked to a hazard that is not adequately controlled or eliminated.
Risk is always a FUTURE event – the hazard has yet to occur or be experienced. Risk is a potential hazard.
Risk Formula
You will never be able to accurately quantify the product of the various risk factors (at least not in flight when you will definitely lack the time, resources and brain power).
The Risk Formula is a guide for you to “estimate” or assess the risk of a particular situation when you do your Risk Assessment, with the limited information available to you, the lack of resources and the time constraints imposed on you in-flight.
Severity is the extent of a possible loss. The severity lies in a range from a slight, minor loss to a catastrophic, total loss.
Probability is the likelihood that a hazard will or could potentially cause a loss.
Exposure is the amount of times an event (usually a repeated event) occurs, or the length of time an event is experienced.
Risk Assessment
The detection of hazards and the application of “measurement” to the level of risk that they represent (see Risk Formula).
Risk Management
The process of defining and controlling risk.
A major function of your role as the Captain.
Risk Neutral
Where the risk being accepted meets the requirements of the desired action.
Low Risk is low opportunity and may be overly “safe”.
High Risk is high opportunity and may be overly “dangerous”.
Risk Neutral is somewhere between these two extremes and is dependant on the actual situation and your perception of the risk involved.
Balancing The Risk
Risk Assessment and Management such that a Risk Neutral situation is obtained for the current situation. Read about Balancing The Risk here.
Gambling
Proceeding with little or no Risk Management process.
Usually associated with taking unnecessary chances as a result of poor or no judgement and unnecessary risk. Safety is usually degraded.
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