Balancing The Risk

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

---

First reckon, then risk. (Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke)

One way to envisage your role as the primary Risk Manager is to use the analogy of weighing the risks and the opportunities on a set of balance scales. You’ve probably heard of “Balancing The Risk” and this discussion will explore what is meant by that phrase.

(Click on the diagrams for a larger view).

No Risk

On one side of the balance scales is the No Risk option.

This can also be characterized by potential Safety (benefits – desirable) and Low Opportunity (costs – undesirable).


In this region there is little gain, but also little risk. You may be missing some valuable opportunities on this side of the equation and a less efficient operation normally results.

If you are a Risk Aversive person (i.e. you personally avoid risk whenever possible) you will heavily weigh this side of the scales.

Whenever the Balance Of Risk is tipped to this side you will be in a Risk Aversive situation.

High Risk

On the other side of the balance scales is the High Risk option.

This can also be characterized by potential Danger (costs – undesirable) and High Opportunity (benefits – desirable).

In this region you can achieve big gains, but at the possible expense of elevated risk. You might obtain significant, valuable opportunities but you also face the threat of “crashing and burning” if it does not turn out correctly.


If you are a Risk Taker type of person (i.e. you readily accept risk if possible) you will heavily weigh down this opposite side of the scales.

Whenever the Balance Of Risk is tipped to this opposite side you will be in a High Risk, possibly Gambling situation.

Risk Neutral

When the scales are “balanced” you have weighed the benefits against the costs – No Risk against High Risk, Safety against Danger and Low Opportunity against High Opportunity.

We accept risk on an “assumed risk” basis because there is a potential benefit or opportunity to be gained. The rewards are now worth the risk.


You are now “Balancing The Risk” and the scales are centred on the Risk Neutral region.

Balancing The Risk

Weighing up the options or calculating your Risk Assessment and getting the scales centred on the Risk Neutral region is the main aim of Risk Management. You will be required to assess risk and determine the possible negative costs and balance them against the potential positive benefits.

Notice that both the No Risk and the High Risk sides both have simultaneous positive (benefits) and negative (costs) characteristics. On the No Risk side there is Safety (positive, a benefit), but also Low Opportunity (negative, a cost). On the High Risk side there is Danger (negative, a cost) and also High Opportunity (positive, a benefit).

This Risk Neutral region is where opportunity and risk interconnect and engage. It is where the risk being accepted meets the requirements. The positive benefits are balanced with the negative costs. If you can manage this you are “Balancing The Risk”.

Risk Neutral can at times be a fine balancing act; just enough risk – but not too little or not too much.

The Individual’s Risk Neutral Position

Different People

Each different individual person will have their own singular personal “risk thresholds” depending on their self-confidence, experience, knowledge and personality. Some people may tend to be more Risk Aversive and others will be Risk Takers.

If you are a Risk Aversive person your individual, personal perceived Risk Neutral region will tend towards the No Risk, Safety, Low Opportunity side. If you are more of a Risk Taker then your individual, personal perceived Risk Neutral region will tend towards the High Risk, Danger, High Opportunity side. Have an awareness of your personal “risk threshold” so that you can factor this into your Risk Assessment and Management.

You Personally

Your individual Risk Neutral region may alter and vary depending on your personal physical and emotional state.

If you are fatigued (and you recognise this state) you may elect to be a little more conservative and Risk Aversive to counter that fatigued state. If you get pissed off and angry you may tend to be more aggressive and become more of a Risk Taker (“I’ll show them...”).

Your own personal individual Risk Neutral region may tend towards No Risk or High Risk and is constantly changing (usually within a narrow “risk comfort” band).

Summary

Use the “balance scale” analogy to envisage how you will manage the risk of your flights. Allow for the different "risk thresholds" which will result in different Risk Neutral positions (the "risk comfort level") of the members of your crew. Recognise that your own Risk Neutral position will vary depending on the circumstances and your emotional state.

When you do your Risk Management and Balance the Risk into the Risk Neutral area you should always try to keep it on an even keel.

Risk & Your Command Course

During your training you will not only have to Balance The Risk as a part of your normal role as the Captain but you’ll also have to balance your own “Command Training” Risk.


Your Risk “Attitude”

Some Command Trainee’s attitudes towards risk while undergoing a Command Course is to be extremely Risk Aversive for fear of “failing”, or making a cock-up, or because they lack confidence. They become constrained by conservatism and as a result sink to become the “lowest common denominator”.

By doing this they remain well and truly within their Comfort Zone. They are fearful of taking a calculated risk and pushing themselves into their Learning Zone.

As a general rule you will probably be a little conservative and Risk Aversive during your Command Course and during the first 12 months after successfully completing the Command Course.

As your confidence, experience and expertise grows, you will naturally tend to tolerate greater risk. Your Risk Neutral region will tend towards the High Risk, High Opportunity side. You probably have much greater self-confidence and are more aware of the true nature of your abilities and skills and so can confidently handle more difficult, higher risk (and higher opportunity) situations. This doesn’t mean that you are all of a sudden more risky – it just means that you are balancing the higher risk, higher opportunity with increased and improved skills and confidence.

A better way to look at it may be that instead of becoming more of a Risk Taker, you are becoming less of a Risk Aversive Commander.

Take A Risk

This taking a calculated and balanced Risk while on your Command Course is part of the “teaching” and learning process. I personally encourage my Trainees to “take a risk”; to try something new, novel or unusual or something rarely encountered during Line flying.

I also point out to my Trainees that if they make a mistake to treat it as a powerful learning experience, not as a failure. It is only ever a failure if you don’t learn from the experience. Besides, it is better to make a mistake during Training rather than on a Check.

You must accept that you might fail; then, if you do your best and still don't win, at least you can be satisfied that you've tried. If you don't accept failure as a possibility, you don't set high goals, and you don't branch out, you don't try – you don't take the risk. (Rosalynn Carter)

You've got to take the initiative and play your game...confidence makes the difference. (Chris Evert)

One of the reasons people stop learning is that they become less and less willing to risk failure. John W. Gardner

Discuss this with your Trainer as each individual Trainer will have different views on this.

Push Yourself

After all you want to get the best possible training and push yourself towards high opportunity, but not unduly stuff up or be overly conservative by retreating backwards to low opportunity.

Life isn't worth living unless you're willing to take some big chances and go for broke. (Eliot Wiggington)

During your training you also will have to do some Command Course Risk Assessment and Management and so Balance The “Command Training” Risk. (Maybe walking a tightrope over a huge chasm is a better analogy!?)

Nobody said it would be easy!

The Four Essential “Rules Of Risk”

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

---

If you apply the following Four Essential “Rules Of Risk” you will become a far more effective Risk Manager and Captain.

In addition, these “Rules” will assist, guide and help you to exercise good judgment and formulate sound decisions.

1. Do not accept unnecessary risk.

The key word in this rule is “unnecessary”. An unnecessary risk is any risk that if taken, will not contribute meaningfully to your flights’ accomplishment. Captains who take unnecessary risk are probably gambling with crew and passenger lives.

Aviation is by its’ very nature an inherently risky business. You face and accept risk all the time, whether you realize it or not.

You need to be constantly Balancing The Risk – achieving the “Risk Neutral” state, which is not overly “safe” (low opportunities) and not overly “dangerous” (high opportunities).

• There is no advantage to accepting a course of action that results in a new, increased or unjustifiable risk if there are no meaningful benefits to be derived.



• Risk should not be greater than the undertaking.



• If it is not worth doing safely, then it is probably not worth doing at all.

Risk properly managed is acceptable.
2. Accept risk when the benefits outweigh the costs.

Nothing in aviation is risk free and we choose certain options that contain an element of risk because there is an opportunity or benefit to be gained. This needs to be balanced against the probability of the occurrence and the possible costs or severity of the risk.

Again you need to be Balancing The Risk. You walk the fine line of being either too risk aversive (low opportunity, but possibly overly safe) or being too risky (high opportunity, but possibly dangerous).

If you are faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself “When is the success of the task not worth the risk?”

3. Make Risk Decisions At The Appropriate Level.

What is the right level? It is the level where the decision maker has the experience and maturity to make a good decision.

Normally, this is the Captain’s job as most times you cannot defer or transfer your risk management duties due to time constraints or a lack of resources.

However, you don’t need to make all the hard decisions solely yourself. You can involve other external agencies (e.g. Aircraft Engineering Specialists, Dispatchers, Fleet Managers, Operations Managers or whoever has Operational Control of your Airlines’ aircraft). The real trick is to assign the risk accountability at the lowest possible level i.e. to the person closest to the action with the best SA, knowledge of the situation and experience.

Remember that ultimately the buck stops with you. As the Captain you are the final authority and are responsible for the safe operation and conduct of the flight.

4. Integrate Risk Management Into Planning And Execution At All Levels.

Risk management is an integral part of the planning and execution of flight operations.

You need to constantly be assessing, managing and balancing risk during all phases of flight. This includes pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight.

Risk management is an important part of the Captain’s role and you need to involve your entire team at all levels – both on the ground and in the air. This entire “team” includes not only your flight and cabin crew, but ground engineers, dispatchers, operations personnel, ATC, airline management and cargo loading, passenger handling and traffic ground staff.

The Nature Of Risk

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

---

Is aviation a risky business?

Definitely – but that doesn’t stop us from going flying.

Consider the following statements;

• Everything we do has some sort of risk (high, low or neutral) associated with it.


• Life is risk.


• The only people without risk are six feet under.


• Risk is required to get things done.


• We accept risk on an “assumed risk” basis because there is a potential benefit or opportunity to be gained.


• Where there is no risk there is usually no opportunity.


• Success at a risk-free endeavour is impossible.


• He who risks nothing, gets nothing. (French Proverb)

Risk & Safety

You may have heard the phase “safety is paramount” (i.e. safety comes above and before all else). If that were truly the case we would be out of a job, as we would never go flying. There will always be an element of risk in anything we do (including aviation), but just because there is some form of risk does not mean that we will not attempt it. We obviously want to minimise risk or even eliminate it if possible. Our usual strategy in the aviation game is to be as safe as possible.

Being safe usually does not eliminate risk – it only reduces it.
That is where you, the Captain, come in. One of your primary goals, tasks and jobs is to constantly be a Risk Assessor and Risk Manager and to Balance The Risk that you have elected to take on, to maximise the safe, legal and efficient outcome of your flight. This Risk Management role will often dictate the decisions that you make. You will be required to decide if you, or your crew, engage in risky behaviour or activities and when, where and how much assumed risk you take on. This will have to be assessed based on your desired goals and plans.

Pilots can be “Dangerously Safe”. This is another way of saying they are extremely Risk Aversive and do not willing accept risk or will avoid risk no matter how minor. These dangerously safe pilots usually miss out on the benefits and opportunities associated with taking a considered and calculated Risk Assessment. They usually frustrate the hell out of their other crew members, as the other person cannot understand why they are not accepting some risk to achieve a better outcome.

Safety in our aviation system depends, to a great extent, upon the amount of control we exercise over our choices to take risks. (Richard S. Jensen).

Human Centred Risk

Most pilots associate risk with external factors; the weather, environment, aircraft serviceability, ATC, terrain, traffic etc.

However, risk can also be associated with internal, “human” factors. Risk is very often human centred – it is YOU!

Do you ever look at yourself as a “risk”? Poor Decision Making, lack of judgement, uncurrent, ill-disciplined, not prepared, fatigued, frustrated, lack of knowledge, emotional (both positive and negative emotions).

Often it is these “humanity” aspects that are risky. You can also gain or lose in the humanity stakes.

You may be worried about being late, not being promoted, being embarrassed, getting reprimanded. You may need to, satisfy your need to be valued, feed your ego, fulfil other’s expectations, be seen as competent, to achieve a personal convenient outcome or be accepted by your peers and/or superiors. You may want to get home, gain or avoid a financial advantage/disadvantage, seek enjoyment or thrills. You may be personally, over/under confident, happy, sad, frustrated, angry or be Risk Aversive or a Risk Taker.

These human factors also have positive and negative opportunities and outcomes and these are the human motivators that may affect what types of risk you accept. These “human” factor risks could be seen as illogical and irrational and have no place in aviation Risk Assessment and Management. But you (and your crew) ARE human and therefore you WILL be affected by these humanity risk factors.

The Weakest & Strongest Link

Accident and incident reports have time and again shown that pilots are very often the weakest link in the accident or incident chain (or in other words, the highest risk factor) and could be considered to be the weakest link in the chain of events. So you and your team are a risk factor that you will have to consider.

But accidents or incidents are the negative outcomes of possibly poor or inadequate Judgement and Decision Making. They are also an extremely tiny minority of the millions of flights that are undertaken.

The vast majority of flights will have a successful outcome. And one of the reasons for this overwhelmingly successful rate is the complex and correct (not always optimal, but nevertheless correct and safe) Judgement and Decision making that the human element (you) of aviation makes continually on every flight. We pilots are irreplaceable (at least at the moment!), as computers and machines cannot match our flexibility, deductive, analytical and decision making abilities in rapidly changing, complex, volatile and ambiguous situations. So you could also be considered to be the strongest link in the chain of events.

As the Captain you are the Leader, the primary Decision Maker and Risk Assessor and Manager. You will most likely determine if you and your team are the weakest or the strongest link on any particular flight. Hopefully you will favour your strengths and work on improving your weaknesses.

The Bottom Line

At the end of the day we all just want to go home, see our significant other and ankle biters and have a beer (BBQ optional). A smoking hole is not a good option.

Be the best Risk Assessor and Manager that you can be and Balance The Risk so that you can have that beer.

Risk Definitions

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

---

The following are definitions that will be used throughout the other Risk articles.

Hazard

Any current real or potential condition that can overtly or covertly lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event.

A hazard is the SOURCE of risk.

A hazard is always a PRESENT event – it is what is happening or affecting you right now.

Risk

The probability and severity of a loss linked to a hazard that is not adequately controlled or eliminated.

Risk is always a FUTURE event – the hazard has yet to occur or be experienced. Risk is a potential hazard.

Risk Formula

You will never be able to accurately quantify the product of the various risk factors (at least not in flight when you will definitely lack the time, resources and brain power).

The Risk Formula is a guide for you to “estimate” or assess the risk of a particular situation when you do your Risk Assessment, with the limited information available to you, the lack of resources and the time constraints imposed on you in-flight.

RISK = SEVERITY x PROBABILITY x EXPOSURE
Severity is the extent of a possible loss. The severity lies in a range from a slight, minor loss to a catastrophic, total loss.

Probability is the likelihood that a hazard will or could potentially cause a loss.

Exposure is the amount of times an event (usually a repeated event) occurs, or the length of time an event is experienced.

Risk Assessment

The detection of hazards and the application of “measurement” to the level of risk that they represent (see Risk Formula).

Risk Management

The process of defining and controlling risk.

A major function of your role as the Captain.

Risk Neutral

Where the risk being accepted meets the requirements of the desired action.

Low Risk is low opportunity and may be overly “safe”.

High Risk is high opportunity and may be overly “dangerous”.

Risk Neutral is somewhere between these two extremes and is dependant on the actual situation and your perception of the risk involved.

Balancing The Risk

Risk Assessment and Management such that a Risk Neutral situation is obtained for the current situation. Read about Balancing The Risk here.

Gambling

Proceeding with little or no Risk Management process.

Usually associated with taking unnecessary chances as a result of poor or no judgement and unnecessary risk. Safety is usually degraded.

Judgement & Decision Making (Part 7 - Risk)

This is the seventh of a series of articles which will look at Command Judgement and Decision Making. (Part 6 - Define The Problem) is under construction.

Each part needs to be read in the sequential order presented, as this is the way I believe you mentally go about using your judgement to make a decision. There is no point in reading Part 7 before Part 6.

---

Risk
Risk is a big subject.

A big, complicated subject that, whether you like it or not, YOU as the Captain have to have a “firm, slippery grip” on. One of your prime jobs as the Captain is to be a Risk Assessor and a Risk Manager and you have to be adept at Balancing The Risk.

(Click over there).

Risk Management is an essential step in the Judgement and Decision Making model being explained here. Risk and your perception of it is a major factor in applying your Judgement to reach a sound and safe decision.

To make this big dry and, at times tedious, subject a little more palatable I’ll break it down into smaller risk components. Just follow the links below to get to the indicated subjects.

Ensure you read Risk Definitions first as all the other articles will use these basic definitions.

It is probably best if you read all of the subjects and not just the ones that interest you, as the separate individual risk subjects are part of a whole – like a jigsaw puzzle. The whole is definitely more than the sum of the individual components.

1. Risk Definitions


2. The Nature Of Risk


3. The Four Essential "Rules Of Risk"


4. Balancing The Risk

---

Part 8 is under construction.

This is only MY attempt at analysing Judgement and Decision Making – I’m just a professional aviator, not a psychologist so my thoughts may not conform with academia, but it is based on a real pilot’s perspective. What would you rather have; a psychologist explaining aviation or an aviator explaining psychology?

I welcome any feedback about this article. Please add YOUR pilot input (or if any psychologists read this, your thoughts) by using the COMMENTS link below.

Judgement & Decision Making (Part 4 - Perception)

This is the fourth of a series of articles which will look at Command Judgement and Decision Making. (Part 3 – Sense Filters) is here.

Each part needs to be read in the sequential order presented, as this is the way I believe you mentally go about using your Judgement to make a decision. There is no point in reading Part 5 before Part 4

---

Perception

We receive vast amounts of information via our senses and a large portion of this information is physiologically filtered so that we can digest, process and make sense of that information and not be over-whelmed once it gets to our brain.

(Click on the image for a bigger view).

That’s the physiological filtering process. Once that relatively “raw data” (reality) gets to our brain it goes through another cognitive filtering process of perception. This perception is very important in this discussion on Judgement and Decision Making as in this step of the Judgement model the potential for errors is greatly increased. This “perception filtered”, modified information is your unique, individual “perceived reality” and this is what you use to make sense of the world and what is happening to you. This perceived reality is what you use in your Judgement and Decision Making process.

Definitions

While there are many different definitions of Reality and Perception, for the purposes of this discussion we’ll simplify both of them to suit our aviation environment.

Reality

Reality is what is really, actually happening.

You determine reality by sensing the “raw data” that is detected by your human sense organs. We will consider that the incoming raw data is identical for everyone (this is not strictly true as the raw data gets filtered slightly by each individual’s physiological sense filters and so the data that eventually ends up being sensed is slightly different for each person).

Perceived Reality

Your individual perceived reality is what you “think” is happening.

You determine your individual perceived reality by sensing the raw data and then “interpreting” this raw data. This perceived reality may be correct or incorrect depending on your interpretation. This is your understanding of “reality” and this is what is “real” and unique for you.

Most of the time one person’s perceived reality will be very similar (sometimes almost identical) to another person’s who is receiving that same raw data – but not always.

Perceived Reality is your unique, individual understanding of what is happening to you in the world.

Filling In The “Blanks”

One of the reasons for the difference between reality and perceived reality is that a major function of your human sensory system is to reduce and order the vast amount of data that your sense organs receive (physiological filter) so that you can process this information, “understand” it and react accordingly.

Sometimes this raw data is not understood correctly or doesn’t make sense (in your own mind). There are often “blank” areas in the information and you tend to try and “fill in the blanks”. The blanks are filled with what you “think” (correctly or incorrectly) is required so that your perceived reality agrees with how you “think” the world should be. There is often a discrepancy between what you perceive to be true (your perceived reality) and actual reality.

This discrepancy and the filling in of the blanks is potentially (and usually) where a major number of errors can be introduced into the Judgement and Decision Making system.

These blanks are filled in based on your previous experience, expectancy, assumption and bias. Your individual perception is heavily influenced by mood, emotions, personality, mental state (e.g. rested or fatigued), beliefs, values, culture (both organizational and national), knowledge, preparation, morals, social norms, “facts” (as you understand them), attitude and motivation.

Most of your created perceived reality occurs unconsciously, without thought. However, if you recognize that you are doing this, you can consciously alter your thought pattern and possibly introduce more “rational” and “logical” thinking. This is probably the first step in the Judgement and Decision Making model that you can pause and confirm if your expectations, assumptions and/or thought processes are “correct” and “agree” with reality (as you understand it).

These individual influences are why two people who receive identical raw data each reach different conclusions, act on that information differently or come up with dissimilar decisions. Their perceived reality is different even though the received raw data was identical.

Sensory Illusions

Most of the senses we have looked at in previous chapters are also subject to certain illusions (or an erroneous perception of reality). Our human senses have evolved and adapted to an earth-based frame of reference and they can be very dangerous if we rely exclusively upon then in our 3 dimensional, multi “G” aviation environment.

You’re probably familiar with most of the common aviation sensory illusions. If not have a look at Sensory Illusions In Aviation for a more comprehensive description.

If you rely upon these false illusions detected by your sensors then you will ultimately reach or formulate false or incorrect decisions based on those false perceptions of reality (garbage in – garbage out).


Individual “Reality”

This perception filter and trying to make the world fit in to your way of thinking (your perceived reality) is why two pilots sitting side by side, receiving the exact same raw data from the PFD, ND, instruments, radios, inter-personal interaction etc. can sometimes perceive two very different situations. The same raw data (reality) is received but different perceived realities are individually experienced.

One pilot may perceive that you are high on descent profile and the other low. One safe and the other dangerous, good/bad, Go/No Go, fast/slow, early/late, acceptable/unacceptable.

Your training in your particular Airline and your Airline’s SOPs or NPs go a long way to keep the crew’s perceived reality as similar as possible. That’s one of the main functions of our very standardized professional lives – to minimize misconceptions and misunderstandings and have very similar perceived realities between crew. The same raw data means the same thing to each of us and so our perceived realities are usually extremely similar.

Summary


Judgement and Decision Making is driven entirely by your perceived reality NOT actual reality.
We tend to fill in the blanks to compensate for missing information after our sense organs relay the raw data to our brain. This difference in perceived reality is why two different pilots will come up with two different answers or a dissimilar decision when faced with exactly the same raw data. This perceptual filter is where potential errors are often introduced.

As we shall see later Judgement is fuelled by perceived risk and NOT real risk. But more on risk after looking at the next chapter – Recognition.

---

Judgement and Decision Making (Part 5 – Recognition).

This is only MY attempt at analysing Judgement and Decision Making – I’m just a professional aviator, not a psychologist so my thoughts may not conform with academia, but it is based on a real pilot’s perspective. What would you rather have; a psychologist explaining aviation or an aviator explaining psychology?

I welcome any feedback about this article. Please add YOUR pilot input (or if any psychologists read this, your thoughts) by using the COMMENTS link below.