Airline Command

Workload Management (Part 2)

2008-08-16T06:47:00.008+08:00

High Workload

Every flight has periods of high workload. You need to be aware of when these high workload periods will occur and you need to plan ahead and organize tasks around the low workload periods.

A major element of workload management is shifting the workload from busy times to quiet times. Mismanagement of workload will degrade your team’s performance. Plan for the future and identify when high workload periods will occur during low workload periods; when you have time and are not overloaded. Then you can formulate plans and brief your team to mitigate the perceived threats, pace their activities, prioritise and effectively manage their workload to ensure that everything gets done correctly and nobody gets bogged down and left behind when things get busy.

Plan during low workload periods for the high workload periods.
Effective CRM pays dividends any time the workload increases to intensive levels such as during an emergency or when activities conspire in a manner that are typically beyond one pilot’s abilities. You need to ensure that your team acts cohesively together.

High workload situations are sometimes unavoidable. During these situations you need to;

Give clear, concise commands (provide Leadership and direction for your team).

Monitor each individual’s workload to identify times of overload. If you recognise overload in yourself or others, you will need to prioritise, delegate, defer or redistribute the workload.

Communicate task saturation to other crewmembers. This individual overload recognition is difficult to see in yourself, easier to spot in others and requires crew to monitor each other.

How To Cope

Why do some Captains cope efficiently with difficult and high workload situations and yet for others nothing seems to go right?

A 2004 conference sponsored by Boeing looked at what qualities successful crews used as countermeasures in TEM. There were four particular groupings of CRM skills:

Team building and climate. Of particular importance were good communications and effective Leadership.

Planning. Crews that excelled performed good briefings, anticipated threats, stated plans, assigned workload, and developed contingency plans for known threats (plan during low workload for high workload).

Execution. These crews had solid monitoring and cross-checking, workload management, and vigilance skills. They also showed a mastery of automation management.

Review/Modify. High performing crews reviewed plans frequently against the stated goals, modified plans when necessary, asked questions, and stated critical information with persistence.

As you can see, workload management is important in ensuring that the flight is completed efficiently and safely and is intimately tied to SA, monitoring and communication.

Effects Of Increasing Workload

Increasing workload results in decreasing SA and poor monitoring. All too often flight crews tend to do too many concurrent things and not adequately monitor the aircraft.

The common key periods in which you are most likely to commit the most errors due to poor workload management on routine flights are;

Preflight preparation with an “unusual” situation (e.g. passenger handling issues, difficult MEL item or equipment malfunction possibly requiring engineering assistance),

During taxi for departure and after arrival,

Within 1,000 feet of level-off (“One to go”), and

During descent and making an approach or landing. Avoid briefing during descent – complete your arrival brief early and omit PAs if pushed for time.

You will need to pay more attention to workload management so that at least one pilot is always monitoring during low workload periods and both pilots are monitoring as much as possible when things get busy.

Distractions

Distractions are really just misallocated priorities – you focus on the wrong thing rather than the most important task at the time. You will be required to avoid distractions during critical flight phases.

Distraction can led to workload management failures and no one flying the aircraft. Common distractions are;

The traffic staff, ISM or ATC interrupting you during a preflight briefing.

PAs after commencing descent.

FMS/ECAM/EICAS. Sometimes the automation can cause you to focus on it rather than the higher priority Aviate, Navigate, Communicate, Manage functions.

Unusual, novel, complex or ambiguous events. See the FMS/ECAM/EICAS discussion above.

Robust Work Routines

To cope with these distractions and interruptions you will need to formulate and continually practise robust work routines – especially during the preflight phase or during novel, complex and unusual situations, both of which have the potential to be high workload periods.

Work routines are just easy to use ways that you do your normal business, within the framework of SOPs/NPs. They may take the form of pneumonics, brief personal checklists that you cross off (either physically or mentally) when you complete actions or methods that link one task with the next if tasks are required to be done sequentially.

Whatever method you chose, it needs to be strong and robust. It needs to be able to be effective and usable when the pressure starts to increase and it needs to be well practised and ingrained.

On most “normal” flights the preflight phase will be a higher workload environment with the additional pressure of keeping the scheduled departure time. You need to have a sound understanding of the time-line associated with the pre-departure phase and you will need to manage the tasks in this busy period effectively. This is where a well practised robust work routine can assist you.

Automation

The introduction of the glass cockpit redistributed, rather than reduced flight crews’ workloads. Pilots now spend more resources managing the various systems in the cockpit. (Baxter and Besnard 2004)

LOSA audit data indicates that about 30 percent of crew errors occurred when the flight crew was programming the FMS.
The FMS and ECAM/EICAS have been likened to a vacuum cleaner; it sucks heads, eyes, fingers and attention straight into it.

Management of Automation

Automation is both a curse and a blessing. It depends very much on how you utilise the various automation systems and the particular situation that you find yourself in. Automation requires sound management and monitoring techniques.

Do not place a blind faith in automation; have a healthy level of scepticism. But do not disregard or overlook the automation features as they can reduce your workload immensely when used correctly.

Consider the automation to be another member of your team – tasks can be delegated to it, but you also need to monitor it and if it does not do what you desire be prepared to take manual control, reverting to Basic Modes if required.

Ensure that you and your team avoid the automation “Vacuum Cleaner”.

Automation is another aspect of your Command operation that you will be required to utilise correctly to effectively manage your team’s workload.

So, start to practise effective workload management – it definitely makes your future job as the Captain much, much easier.

Workload Management (Part 1)

2008-08-15T15:36:00.018+08:00

Observations during a Line Operational Safety Audit (LOSA) at several major airlines revealed over one-third of the monitoring errors occurred due to poor workload management. A significant number of pilots simply weren't planning ahead to accomplish as many tasks during low workload periods as possible. (Patrick R. Veillette)

Command Workload Management

One of your “new” roles as Captain will be to ensure that your team’s workload is managed to ensure things get done safely, SA and monitoring remains at a high level, tasks are distributed fairly and equally (usually within the framework of SOPs/NPs) and to ensure that YOU never get so overloaded that your Command SA, decision making, risk assessment and management and overall Leadership are not compromised.

Workload Management is the process of evenly distributing activities by planning, prioritizing and assigning tasks to individual crewmembers within your team (and this may also include “outside agencies” such as Operations, Engineering, ATC etc.). It is avoiding Underload and Overload and striving to operate in an Optimum workload environment to maximize your team’s performance.

Workload Management is concerned with;

The proper allocation or delegation of tasks and duties to individuals to distribute the workload,

Avoidance of work overload (and to a lesser extent, work underload) in yourself and in members of your team,

Prioritization of tasks, especially during periods of high workload,

Preventing nonessential factors from distracting attention from adherence to effective monitoring, SA and NPs, particularly those relating to critical tasks, and

Ensuring that you have enough spare mental capacity to cope with and manage unexpected events.

At the very core of workload management are the essential concepts of prioritisation and delegation, which in turn results in you having spare mental capacity.

Prioritise

As the Captain you must be able to prioritise tasks – for both your team and yourself.

To prioritize is to identify those tasks that are most important and need to be done first and those that are less important and can be deferred to a later time. In addition to determining the relative importance of tasks you need to be able to sequence the accomplishment of those tasks and allocate the workload between team members effectively.

During periods of high workload, prioritization is extremely important to ensure that the essential fundamental tasks are accomplished first.

How you choose to allocate priority to the various required tasks in any situation will be up to you and is heavily influenced by your perception of the situation, the current phase of flight, previous experience, preparation and planning. Aviate, Navigate, Communicate, Manage (or Plane, Path, People, Parts) is a sound framework to begin prioritisation of tasks.

Prioritisation is useless unless your team is aware of what your perceived priorities are. Sound SA is required to plan ahead, as is good communication skills to share your mental model and communicate your intent to the others in your team.

Delegate

To effectively accomplish your prioritised tasks, you must assign duties and responsibilities within your team. You must delegate tasks where appropriate to allocate or share the workload and to reduce individual crew member’s workloads when they start to get behind; especially your own Command workload.

Delegation is also an essential element of Leadership. You do not have to do everything yourself; something that often escapes new Commanders. By delegating tasks within the team you manage the individual’s and also the team’s overall workload. As an additional bonus, if your team’s workload is equitably distributed, you, in your Command role, will function better.

Often when you are faced with new, novel, ambiguous, difficult or complex situations (e.g. an emergency or a tricky MEL item), it can sometimes be best to delegate some of your duties or tasks to others within your team so that you can free up extra mental capacity and take a step back to look at the “Big Picture” and focus on your Command management and Leadership functions. This allows you to effectively regulate and achieve your desired outcome. Delegate so that you can regulate.

Be sure those you delegate tasks to are capable to perform the task. You must monitor their progress and subsequent workload as well as the progress of the assigned task.

Work Smarter, Not Harder

Command is not normally about physical handling skill (although it is important) – it’s about Leadership and a component of that is workload management. Use your time and energy wisely and reduce your team’s workload whenever possible.

Use your available resources effectively to get the job efficiently done. Strive for the most output for least input. Whenever possible;

Avoid unnecessary work and shift the work you have to do from busy periods to less busy periods. This requires good SA and results from future projection, anticipation and planning. This is an important element of workload management.

Do not unnecessarily over-complicate issues. Use the KISS principle and aim to simplify whenever possible. You will not impress anyone by making the job harder than it actually needs to be.

Do not micro-manage your team. Assign or delegate tasks and then let them get on with doing it. You will still need to monitor them, but don’t interfere if the task is being accomplished – you can be doing something else of a high priority simultaneously.

Consider using appropriate automation to reduce your physical and mental workload and to increase your spare mental capacity so that you can utilise and maximise your Leadership and Command management skills.

Good Captains are relaxed, appear to being doing little work and have spare mental capacity, yet they still have everything under control. You should focus on working smarter, not harder.

Spare Mental Capacity

To fulfil the required Command duties of adequate SA, CRM, TEM, Leadership, risk assessment, decision making and safe operation of the flight you need to ensure that you have sufficient Spare Mental Capacity. You cannot allow yourself to be working so hard that all you are able to achieve is mediocre SA (and only functioning in the Present).

During periods of high workload you will tend to become fixated and develop “tunnel vision” to cope with the increased workload. Monitoring and SA will decrease and you will likely have zero spare mental capacity to plan ahead.

You As PF or PM?

Studies have shown that your F/O when acting as PM typically is able to cope with technical knowledge or skill problems, but may be unable to accurately assess a situation's risk and time available, and have limited ability to manage workload effectively.

In addition, NTSB analysis of accidents has noted that the error type observed most often for Captains while acting as PF was the tactical decision error. Tactical decision errors include improper decision making, failure to change course of action in response to signals to do so, and failing to heed warnings or alerts that suggest a change in course of action. The NTSB attributed these errors in part to the additional cognitive and manipulative skill workload of aircraft control.

Depending on the situation, consider letting your F/O act as PF, in conjunction with appropriate use of automation, while you review the Big Picture, update SA, monitor and fulfil your management and supervisory roles while acting as PM. You may find that this lets you think more and as a result arrive at higher quality decisions and outcomes. However, you still need to monitor the aircraft, what your F/O is doing and his workload as well.

Keep Spare Mental Capacity

Ensure you guard against losing this valuable Command asset and if you recognise that you are losing it, reduce your workload and slow the tempo of the flight to increase it.

Methods to ease your workload and increase your spare mental capacity are;

Appropriate use of automation (AP, A/THR, FMS etc.).

Preparation. By properly preparing (either through suitable study before flight or while inflight) you can identify potential problem areas and implement solutions to mitigate their effect before you encounter them.

Delegate and allocate tasks or duties to your team members.

“Buy” time. Slow the tempo and pace of the flight by requesting extra track miles, entering a holding pattern, reducing to minimum manoeuvring speed, going around or delaying take off.

Prioritise. Do the important tasks first and defer the less urgent or non-essential tasks.

Be flexible. Don’t rigidly pursue one course of action and totally disregard alternatives. Your way may not be the best way.

Communicate. Share ideas and tell your crew when you are becoming bogged down or that you simply don’t know the answer or solution. Often your team members may have a ready-made solution (they may have experienced something similar before) or can assist you.

You will require spare mental capacity to cope with the unexpected, unusual or novel events that will eventually happen to you and your team.

Workload Management (Part 2) is here.

Aviate, Navigate, Communicate & Manage

2008-07-31T13:55:00.004+08:00

ANC – Aviate, Navigate, Communicate

Like the concept of Airmanship, at a very early stage of your aviation training you were probably taught to Aviate, Navigate, Communicate. Another way to consider these three aspects is Plane, Path, People.

The Aviate part was to make certain that someone was always flying the aircraft, controlling the Power + Attitude to ensure the Performance was correct. Control the Plane.

The Navigate part was to point the aircraft in the correct way to enable you to get successfully from A to B (both vertically and horizontally). Control the Path.

The Communicate part was to share your Mental Model with your crew and ATC to give and receive information. Control the People.

Pretty routine so far – although a lot of pilots would do well to revisit and incorporate these basics back into their day-today flying operations.

M – Manage

However, in the Airlines and current Corporate environment (and increasingly the GA world) there is another element that needs to be addressed, especially in Glass cockpits. That is the Management aspects of the flight. And if you are the Captain, this Management role will become extremely important.

To round off our “P” discussion, this Manage function can be thought of as the Parts – you have to Manage the various Parts of the aviation system that you are in charge of. Control the Parts.

The introduction of the glass cockpit redistributed, rather than reduced flight crews’ workloads. Pilots now spend more resources managing the various systems in the cockpit.

...some of the burden for handling of safety and efficiency has been passed to the automation, but the pilots instead have to spend extra time and effort on learning how to manage these systems. Indeed, the introduction of technology has changed the nature of training such that pilots are now taught to aviate, navigate, communicate and manage systems. (Baxter and Besnard 2004)

Sometimes, after you have satisfied yourself that the Aviate, Navigate, Communicate areas are satisfactory, you will have to Manage your systems, both automatic and biological (the carbon based life forms). Often the best way to Manage the situation is, if you can, give control of the aircraft to your F/O and take a “Mental” step back and take on an overseeing, supervisory role.

This Management function has always been there, but it is becoming more and more important in today’s modern aviation environment.

So whenever you think of Aviate, Navigate, Communicate – add on Manage.

Situational Awareness (SA) Part 2

2008-07-31T06:42:00.014+08:00

In SA Part 1 we looked at what SA is and the three Levels of SA. Now we’ll look at degraded SA, how to recognise it and prevent poor SA and what constitutes good SA. So read on...

Degraded SA

It is important that you are able to recognise when you or your team are losing or have lost SA. This SA degradation highlights three points;

It can be eroded or degraded gradually (poor SA) or all at once (lost SA),

Seriously degrades the ability to achieve efficiency and flight safety (it is often a prime factor in aircraft accidents).

There are nearly always sufficient cues for individual crew members to recognise and recover from lost SA. (from Redefining Airmanship)

Don’t paint yourself into a corner and then have to do everything exactly right to recover. Maintain a healthy level of scepticism and be slightly conservative to maintain the flexibility of multiple options.

Recognising Poor Or Lost SA

“Red Flags” or indicators that indicate possible degrading, poor or lost SA in yourself or within your team are;

Ambiguity or confusion (unresolved discrepancies and what you expect to happen doesn’t).

Loss of spatial (where you are in three dimensions) and temporal (time) awareness.

“Gut” feeling (if something doesn’t look or “feel” right, then it probably isn’t).

Both pilots “heads down” (remember Aviate is the first priority).

Fixation, “tunnel vision” or a narrowing of attention (this may be caused by an unusual, novel or stressful situation).

Running out of time to execute or complete tasks.

Expectation, assumption and bias – reality doesn’t always happen as you think it should.

Distractions – a major loss of SA cause.

Malfunctions (especially ECAM/EICAS) or novel, abnormal or unusual occurrences.

Overload (busy) or underload (bored).

Fatigue or stress.

Over reliance on automation (Automation Dependency, Automation Complacency and Automation Bias).

Poor communication (vague or incomplete statements) or reduced frequency of communication (hesitancy or withdrawal from the situation).

Failure to meet targets (e.g. altitude constraints, stabilised approach criteria).

Getting behind the aircraft (no Level 3 SA or thinking ahead of the aircraft).

Use of an undocumented procedure, non NP or violation of a minimum (usually unintentionally, which creates confusion in your team).

Attempting to operate the aircraft outside of know limitations (e.g. lowering flaps above their limit speed).

Recovering SA

You must recognise that you have lost SA before you can begin to recover it. You also need to admit and accept that your SA may have been lost or degraded – only then can you go about recovering it. Do this by;

Getting away from dirt, rocks, trees and metal – avoid terrain, traffic and weather.

Stabilising the aircraft – minimise changes until you regain your spatial awareness.

Buying time – slow the tempo, hold, reduce speed, request extra track miles.

Seeking information – listen and update your team’s shared mental model.

Learning from experience – if you have experienced a similar situation before, you are more likely to recognise and resolve that situation before poor SA develops.

Also check out SA Enhancement - Quick & Dirty.

Prevention

Two of the main enemies of good SA are distractions and a high workload.

Both have the effect of reducing the monitoring and scanning of the operation. You need to minimise distractions and control the tempo and pace of operations such that your team’s workload is kept to an appropriate and manageable level.

To develop an understanding of effective SA you need to know about the following factors that enable you to prevent a loss of SA;

Manage distractions.

Reduce workload and avoid overload.

Prioritise.

Define roles, follow NPs and delegate duties.

Preparation and planning (you don’t get caught out).

Avoid complacency.

Test assumptions, confirm expectations and suspend bias.

Intervene.

Actively monitor.

Actively direct attention and scan.

Use all available sources to obtain information. You also need to communicate and share your mental model.

Ensure you don’t end up with too much information and not enough SA.

Be aware of your own and your crew’s limitations.

Good SA

Good Crew SA

Four major actions that are important for enhancing team or crew SA;

Identifying problems or potential problems (Threats).

Demonstrating knowledge of the actions of others.

Keeping up with flight details, and

Verbalizing actions and intentions. (Prince and Salas 1998)

If you and your team can do these things you will be able to solve problems quicker and be able to recognise problem areas developing sooner.

Good SA Elements

Good SA requires you to engender and promote the following elements within your team:

Building a composite image of the entire situation in three dimensions (the Big Picture).

Assimilation of information from multiple sources (communication and prioritising is critical).

Knowing spatial position and geometric relationships (where am I, where is the other traffic, where is my nearest suitable airfield?).

Periodically updating the current dynamic situation (update your shared mental model).

Prioritizing information and actions (do the important stuff first and defer the others).

Making quality and timely decisions (a major quality required for Command).

Projecting the current situation into the future (be proactive, not reactive).

Situational Awareness (SA) Part 1

2008-07-30T17:19:00.018+08:00

SA is a pilot’s (or aircrew’s) continuous perception of self and aircraft in relation to the dynamic environment of flight, threats, and mission, and the ability to forecast, then execute tasks based on that perception.

It is problem solving in a three-dimensional spatial relationship complicated by the fourth dimension of time compression, where there are too few givens and too many variables. It encompasses the individual’s experience and capabilities, which affect the ability to forecast, decide and then execute. SA represents the cumulative effects of everything an individual is and does as applied to mission accomplishment. (Carol, L. A. 1992)

Command SA

Situational Awareness (SA) is vital in our aviation domain as the information flow can be very high, variable in quantity and quality and the effects of poor decisions can result in safety being compromised and serious consequences. If you can accurately perceive the environment you are operating in, your level of risk will be low.

It requires a high degree of spatial (where you are in the three dimensions) and temporal (how much, or little, time is available) awareness and knowledge.

You no doubt have been using and applying SA throughout your aviation career. Now that you are taking on a Command role, SA assumes a far more important role. Good SA is what will ensure that you and your team conduct a safe and efficient flight.

SA is intimately interwoven with Leadership, Monitoring, Workload Management, Communication, Risk Management and ultimately affects Judgement & Decision making. Each segment influences the others and directly affects the operation as a whole.

Situational Awareness is when perception matches reality and you are able to act upon it in a timely and rational manner. (Refining Airmanship).

Good SA allows you to maximise opportunities and to avoid undesirable situations.
It’s Not Just About You

In your new Command role, you not only have to manage yourself, but now you will be required to Lead and manage your team and more specifically your Crew.

You will have to include and monitor what the rest of your team is doing. This includes being situationally aware of what your F/O is doing, his workload, capabilities and skill, in addition to his strengths and weaknesses. This crew and team awareness applies also to your Cabin Crew, ground and operational staff you may come into contact with and your interaction with ATC.

At times you will have to intentionally slow the tempo of operations so that the other team members can keep pace with the situation and not overload them.

Good individual SA is achieved by having an accurate mental model.

Good shared crew SA is achieved by having an accurate shared mental model.

3 Levels of SA (NUTA)

SA is “the perception of elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, the comprehension of their meaning, and the projection of their status in the near future.” (Endsley 1988)

From this SA definition, three Levels of SA can be inferred;

Level 1 SA. Perception – you Notice.

Level 2 SA. Comprehension – you Understand.

Level 3 SA. Projection – you Think Ahead.

These three SA Levels can be distilled into NUTA (Notice, Understand, Think Ahead).

Level 1 – Perception (Notice)

In this first Level of SA you are required to Perceive or Notice and then recognise a relevant cue, status or attribute (e.g. a caution light or flight parameter). This is enhanced by being aware of the various procedures, policy, technical and operational factors affecting the operation.

Well developed Monitoring skills and an effective scanning technique are required at this Notice stage. This occurs in the Present time – it is what you need to do right now.

Low experienced and overloaded crew members often only operate in this SA Level. They have either not learnt the required skills and techniques or are so overwhelmed or task saturated that they cannot progress to the higher SA Levels.

This initial starting point of SA is commonly where the most numerous number of missed threats, mistakes and errors occurs. Generally if you notice something you will respond correctly to it. Ignorance is NOT bliss. You need to be actively and continually scanning all aspects of the current operation.

Working at Level 1 SA means you are probably behind the aircraft.
Level 2 – Comprehension (Understand)

The next step in SA formation is where the various separate disjointed pieces of Level 1 SA information that you notice are linked together so that patterns are recognised to form a Comprehension and Understanding of what is happening. It requires a holistic view of events – nothing ever operates in isolation.

In this Understanding stage you will need to interpret and Evaluate what is happening around you. This stage occurs also in the Present time.

A large number of crew will often stop at this Level of SA due to high workload, poor CRM or a lack of communication skills.

If you just operate in this area of Level 2 SA you are being reactive.

To be able to operate at this SA Level requires that you have the necessary airmanship, technical and operational knowledge to understand the inter-relationship and implications of such factors.

Functioning at Level 2 SA means you are probably just keeping up with the aircraft.
Level 3 – Projection (Think Ahead)

In this highest Level of SA you should Project the elements and dynamics of Level 1 & 2 SA information into the Future – Think Ahead of the aircraft.

You need to Anticipate and Consider events likely to affect the operation and convey your assessment and thoughts to your crew and team.

Once you reach Level 3 SA you are being proactive.

Never let an airplane take you somewhere you brain didn't get to five minutes earlier.

Usually in this Level of SA you will have anticipated or considered multiple paths to achieve your goal, so that if one option becomes unavailable you change flexibly to another suitable option. This contingency planning is a highlight of good Captains and good crews which starts at the pre-flight phase and continues throughout the entire flight.

Operating at Level 3 SA should be your goal and results in you being ahead of the aircraft.
Shared or Crew SA

These three levels of SA occur at an individual level, but you really want a shared team or crew SA. An SA aware Captain and an SA aware F/O don’t necessarily add up to an SA aware crew. Your crew needs to have an accurate shared mental model of what is occurring.

This aspect of sharing information within the crew requires good communication skills. You need to ask yourself:

What do they know that I need to know?

What do I know that they need to know?

What do none of us know that we need to know?

The SA of your team as a whole depends on both;

A high level of individual SA for the aspects of the situation necessary for their own tasks, and

A high level of shared crew SA between members of your team that are common to the needs of the team.

An SA aware crew has a much greater chance of not losing their individual or crew SA in the first place, or if it is lost, rapidly recognising that loss and then swiftly recovering their SA. That’s good teamwork and something that you need to promote as the Leader and Captain.

An Example Of Shared Crew SA

You are the Captain (PM/PNF) coming around the base leg under ATC vectors for an ILS approach with ATC speed control.

This simple example can be applied to any situation that you find yourself in. Good communication skills and effective CRM is crucial to optimising not only your own SA but also your crew’s.

Good SA is one of the hallmarks of good Captains. Work on improving your Command SA and use the three Levels of SA to provide a framework for your development.

SA Part 2 is here.

Expectancy & Bias

2008-06-06T22:34:00.009+08:00

This article is complementary to Command Judgement and Decision Making Part 6 - Define The Problem.

Taking The Wrong Path

There is no point in “solving” your PERCEIVED problem if in fact it is not the REAL problem. You will still have the original problem unresolved.

You may lead your crew up the wrong path with your Expectation and Bias as the Captain. (See the Lumberjacks & The Wrong Forest).

Checking the outcome of your decision (which will be discussed in a later article) is important to make sure that you have not latched onto the wrong problem.

It is far better to make an incorrect decision, recognise later that it was wrong, admit your “mistake” and then revisit the Judgement and Decision Making process to ultimately identify the correct problem and revise your decision, than it is to blunder blissfully on along the wrong path with the original REAL problem still unsettled.

A man must be big enough to admit his mistakes, smart enough to profit from them, and strong enough to correct them. (John C. Maxwell)

A man who has committed a mistake and doesn't correct it is committing another mistake. (Confucius)

Expectancy

You may “think” you have solved your problem, but the incoming raw data suggests that something is not quite right.

It is difficult to realise that you did not actually solve the original problem and that you need to recomplete the Judgement and Decision Making process from the start again. “That can’t be right (I’m not wrong). I fixed that problem!”

This expectancy may inhibit you from recompleting the whole Judgement and Decision Making process and thus defining the REAL problem. If you get into this situation you may be so fixated on your PERCEIVED problem that it will be extremely hard for you to change your mind and outlook on the REAL problem.

It may be best if you acknowledge that you can’t work out what is wrong (but at least you recognise that something is wrong!) and let another crew or team member state what THEY think is the problem. This might precipitate an “Of course!”, forehead slapping moment when you finally open your eyes (and more importantly open your mind) to the REAL problem that was probably staring you in the face all the time.

We see what we believe, instead of believing what we see.

Bias

As the Captain you have to be careful you don’t unduly influence your crew with your preference or Bias. In other words YOUR Perceived Problem is THE Real Problem.

If you do introduce your Bias you risk influencing your crew’s thoughts and Judgement. Your crew may think “The Captain must be right and I’m wrong.”

That’s OK if your Bias is correct, but you may lead them up the wrong path if it is incorrect – and that’s not OK. This is a subtle form of Groupthink in which everyone will acquiesce and comply to YOUR way of doing things and suppress their individual creativity and thoughts so as to conform to YOUR Bias and Expectations.

You might be correct and what you think is the problem is the real problem, but then again you are human and you therefore make mistakes.

Involve your crew in defining what the problem is and possible solutions.

Use open questions to gather their thoughts and perception of the situation (What do you think...?).

Get them to paraphrase in their own words and state what they think the problem is.

If they agree with your internal mental assessment you can be reasonably sure that that you are on the right path (but not 100% sure as they are subject to Expectations and Bias as well). If their assessment is different from yours then you may have to either restart the Judgement & Decision Making process again to seek more information so that you can accurately define the problem in your own mind, or if you are sure that you’re right, you will have to explain what you think is the correct interpretation and “Sell” it to them.

YOU have to be reasonably certain in your own mind that your crew is solving the correct, Real problem as YOU are the Captain and YOU are ultimately responsible for not only your decisions and actions but also your crew’s decisions and actions.

An Example

You get an indication that one of your Hydraulic (HYD) systems is not producing pressure (on the ECAM/EICAS/gauge), but there are also conflicting indications and information displayed on a separate instrument/gauge.

CN: It looks like the HYD system has failed. (You state YOUR perceived idea of the problem, which as it turns out is incorrect)

F/O: OK. What now?

CN: Let’s secure that HYD system. (You state YOUR solution to what you “think” is the problem)

F/O: OK.

You have possibly Biased your F/O to accept your stated problem and solution and not involved him in the Judgement and Decision Making process. You may have lead your crew up the wrong path. Autocratic Captains favour this type of approach.

OR

CN: It looks like we have a HYD system problem, but there is conflicting information (you state what you see). What do you think? (an open question)

F/O: It looks like we might have a false indication here and this other indication is telling us the HYD system is operating normally and there are no other secondary indications.

CN: I agree. What should we do?

F/O: Let’s keep the HYD system running and see if we can confirm if it is just an indication problem.

CN: Excellent – just what I was thinking (this is good CRM and Leadership – you have praised your F/O for a good decision).

You have involved your F/O in the assessment of the problem and the solution and he has confirmed your initial diagnosis. Participative or Delegative Captains favour this method.

OR

CN: It looks like we have a HYD system problem, but there is conflicting information. What do you think?

F/O: It looks like the HYD system has failed.

CN: I disagree. Look at that other indication – it shows the HYD system operating normally. And there are no secondary indications of the HYD system malfunctioning. (“Sell” the new information to the problem to your F/O.)

F/O: Oh yeah! I didn’t see that. You’re right, it’s most likely an indication problem.

You have involved your F/O and “Sold” the conflicting indications to him and he agrees with your initial diagnosis. If you are a good Leader you can turn this into a valuable learning experience. This is a Participative Captaincy style.

Involve Your Team

You can avoid leading your crew up the wrong path (with your possibly incorrect Expectancy and Bias) by actively involving them in the Judgement and Decision Making.

You should encourage them to provide additional information and encourage input to Define The Problem and assist in formulating a solution to the agreed problem. They are “Sold” on the problem/solution and since they have been involved, they have a personal “Ownership” of the problem/solution.

A crew with this agreement and concurrence will be far more effective, motivated and willing to assist you than a crew that has the problem and solution “imposed” on them, with little personal input.

So be careful not to introduce YOUR Expectations and YOUR Bias and integrate your crew and team in your Judgement and Decision Making process. It will make your job easier.

Judgement & Decision Making (Part 6 - Define The Problem)

2008-06-06T20:50:00.009+08:00

This is the sixth of a series of articles which will look at Command Judgement and Decision Making. Part 5 - Recognition is here.

Each part needs to be read in the sequential order presented, as this is the way I believe you mentally go about using your judgement to make a decision. There is no point in reading Part 6 before Part 5.

Define The Problem
Your senses will have gathered the “raw data” and that will get condensed by your sensory filters. It will then penetrate your consciousness and you will recognise that information. This recognised data will then be further filtered by your perception of the situation.

(Click on the image).

Now you must ensure that your perception of the problem is in fact correct. You need to Define The Problem.

A problem well defined frequently suggests its’ own solution.

If you don’t know where you are going, every road leads you to there. (Lewis Caroll)

A problem well stated is a problem half solved. (John Dewey)

You do this by gathering and seeking extra information or raw data to either confirm your initial diagnosis or for you to realise that your initial perceived problem was incorrect. This extra information/data may come from your internal senses or from external sources such as your F/O, other Crew members, Company publications or policy, ATC, Engineers, Operational staff, other aircraft etc. (i.e. your “extended team” members).

Gathering further supporting information to assist in Defining The Problem is one of the very first steps in the CLEAR, DODAR, GRADE, SOCS and DECIDE, decision making Models.

Selling & Ownership

Once you have Defined The Problem you have to “Sell” it to your crew (involve them, get them to agree that this is in fact the problem) and engender a feeling of “Ownership” of the problem (they feel that they have been concerned with the assessment of the problem and so have some control over their actions and destiny). If you can “Sell” the problem and your crew has this feeling of “Ownership” they will willingly be active at solving the problem and highly motivated. Contrast this with a crew who has had the problem and solution “imposed” upon them by an Autocratic Captain. This crew will be less co-operative, less motivated and less willing and helpful – a less effective team.

A function of your Leadership is to involve your team members, build support and enable contribution from your team members. It makes your overall job easier, more proficient and less stressful.

Symptom Vs Problem

What appears to be a problem may be just a symptom of a larger underlying problem. There is no point in curing the “surface” symptom and then leaving the underlying “deeper” problem unresolved.

Since all problems have solutions, it’s critical that you define your problems correctly. If you don’t, you might solve the wrong problem. (Jack Foster)

An example: If you are unlucky enough to get a Cargo Fire/Smoke warning indication inflight, is the real problem the fire/smoke or is it getting on the ground ASAP? If you punch in the fire extinguisher and complete the checklist actions have you actually solved your problem or just fixed the symptom?

Ask yourself “Is this “surface problem” masking a “deeper” more important problem?”

How You Define The Problem

How you Define The Problem will quite often influence how you arrive at the solution.

The solution to a problem changes the nature of the problem. (John Peers)

For example: If the weather at your destination is poor and deteriorating, is the problem “The weather is poor” or is it “We may not have enough fuel to hold and do the approach”? How you define this problem will dictate your solution. Solution 1 may be “We will do a Cat 2/3 approach and Autoland”. Solution 2 may be “We will hold and attempt an approach until this time or this amount of fuel remaining, then we will divert.”

If you get stuck Defining The Problem you may have to start the Judgement and Decision Making process from the start again. Your definition of the problem can either make it CLEAR to your team or will CONFUSE them.

If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact, not to be solved, but to be coped with over time.

To solve the problem, you may have to redefine it. (Jeff Chase)

It isn't that they can't see the solution. It's that they can't see the problem. (G. K. Chesterton)

Be careful that you as the Captain don’t define the problem in such a way that the decision and solution is implied.

For example: “The HYD system has failed.” This implies that the solution is to turn off the affected HYD system. But, what if it is an indication problem and the HYD system is in fact operating normally? You have missed the opportunity to correctly diagnose the problem by utilising the co-operation and expertise of your other crew members. You will probably get it right most of the time – but is this good enough? Why not increase your chances of getting it right by using your entire team.

Those Really Tricky Problems

If it is a novel, unusual, complex and ambiguous problem you might have extreme difficulty in Defining The Problem. It may be beyond your team’s resources, time available, workload, stress and brain power.

You might be reduced to generalising and defining the problem as “I don’t know what is causing this (...insert unusual problem indications here...), but we need to get on the ground ASAP”. While you don’t define the actual problem, you do eventually formulate an acceptable solution to not solve it, but eliminate or mitigate it (“Let’s land and run away!)

There will never be the ONE RIGHT, PERFECT solution. Don’t become paralysed by trying to Define The Problem to such an extent that you do nothing. Often you will have to Satisfice – take the closest, best option. You may not know the true problem and it may not be the optimal solution... but it’s good enough.

Sometimes getting your arse on the ground AND then worrying about the Problem is a good option.

Remain Problem Centred

Focus initially on being Problem Centred and not being Solution Centred.

Gain extra information to accurately Define The Problem. If you are Solution Centred you will often entirely skip this step and jump straight to the Decision and Action stage.

When the only tool you own is a hammer, every problem begins to resemble a nail. (Abraham Maslow)

Skipping this vital step of correctly Defining The Problem by remaining Problem Centred, often results in failing to identify the real problem. As a result you will solve the wrong problem (or just solve a symptom of the real problem) and leave the real problem festering waiting to catch you out.

You may even have to disengage yourself from the Problem/Solution process and take a “Mental Step Back” to look at the Big Picture and update your SA. You might then notice or take in some other more important information which may help you to more correctly Define The Problem.

Summary

Involve your crew and team and get them contributing (after all that’s what CRM is all about). “Sell” the problem to them and enable them to take “Ownership” of the problem.

There is no point in defining the incorrect problem and them making a decision and solving that wrong problem. It is essential that you take the time and effort to correctly Define The Problem.

See also Expectancy & Bias as these two factors can influence how you Define The Problem.

Judgement & Decision Making (Part 7 - Risk) is here.

This is only MY attempt at analysing Judgement and Decision Making – I’m just a professional aviator, not a psychologist so my thoughts may not conform with academia, but it is based on a real pilot’s perspective. What would you rather have; a psychologist explaining aviation or an aviator explaining psychology?

I welcome any feedback about this article. Please add YOUR pilot input (or if any psychologists read this, your thoughts) by using the COMMENTS link below.

Balancing The Risk

2008-05-27T13:21:00.013+08:00

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

First reckon, then risk. (Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke)

One way to envisage your role as the primary Risk Manager is to use the analogy of weighing the risks and the opportunities on a set of balance scales. You’ve probably heard of “Balancing The Risk” and this discussion will explore what is meant by that phrase.

(Click on the diagrams for a larger view).

No Risk

On one side of the balance scales is the No Risk option.

This can also be characterized by potential Safety (benefits – desirable) and Low Opportunity (costs – undesirable).

In this region there is little gain, but also little risk. You may be missing some valuable opportunities on this side of the equation and a less efficient operation normally results.

If you are a Risk Aversive person (i.e. you personally avoid risk whenever possible) you will heavily weigh this side of the scales.

Whenever the Balance Of Risk is tipped to this side you will be in a Risk Aversive situation.

High Risk

On the other side of the balance scales is the High Risk option.

This can also be characterized by potential Danger (costs – undesirable) and High Opportunity (benefits – desirable).

In this region you can achieve big gains, but at the possible expense of elevated risk. You might obtain significant, valuable opportunities but you also face the threat of “crashing and burning” if it does not turn out correctly.

If you are a Risk Taker type of person (i.e. you readily accept risk if possible) you will heavily weigh down this opposite side of the scales.

Whenever the Balance Of Risk is tipped to this opposite side you will be in a High Risk, possibly Gambling situation.

Risk Neutral

When the scales are “balanced” you have weighed the benefits against the costs – No Risk against High Risk, Safety against Danger and Low Opportunity against High Opportunity.

We accept risk on an “assumed risk” basis because there is a potential benefit or opportunity to be gained. The rewards are now worth the risk.

You are now “Balancing The Risk” and the scales are centred on the Risk Neutral region.

Balancing The Risk

Weighing up the options or calculating your Risk Assessment and getting the scales centred on the Risk Neutral region is the main aim of Risk Management. You will be required to assess risk and determine the possible negative costs and balance them against the potential positive benefits.

Notice that both the No Risk and the High Risk sides both have simultaneous positive (benefits) and negative (costs) characteristics. On the No Risk side there is Safety (positive, a benefit), but also Low Opportunity (negative, a cost). On the High Risk side there is Danger (negative, a cost) and also High Opportunity (positive, a benefit).

This Risk Neutral region is where opportunity and risk interconnect and engage. It is where the risk being accepted meets the requirements. The positive benefits are balanced with the negative costs. If you can manage this you are “Balancing The Risk”.

Risk Neutral can at times be a fine balancing act; just enough risk – but not too little or not too much.

The Individual’s Risk Neutral Position

Different People

Each different individual person will have their own singular personal “risk thresholds” depending on their self-confidence, experience, knowledge and personality. Some people may tend to be more Risk Aversive and others will be Risk Takers.

If you are a Risk Aversive person your individual, personal perceived Risk Neutral region will tend towards the No Risk, Safety, Low Opportunity side. If you are more of a Risk Taker then your individual, personal perceived Risk Neutral region will tend towards the High Risk, Danger, High Opportunity side. Have an awareness of your personal “risk threshold” so that you can factor this into your Risk Assessment and Management.

You Personally

Your individual Risk Neutral region may alter and vary depending on your personal physical and emotional state.

If you are fatigued (and you recognise this state) you may elect to be a little more conservative and Risk Aversive to counter that fatigued state. If you get pissed off and angry you may tend to be more aggressive and become more of a Risk Taker (“I’ll show them...”).

Your own personal individual Risk Neutral region may tend towards No Risk or High Risk and is constantly changing (usually within a narrow “risk comfort” band).

Summary

Use the “balance scale” analogy to envisage how you will manage the risk of your flights. Allow for the different "risk thresholds" which will result in different Risk Neutral positions (the "risk comfort level") of the members of your crew. Recognise that your own Risk Neutral position will vary depending on the circumstances and your emotional state.

When you do your Risk Management and Balance the Risk into the Risk Neutral area you should always try to keep it on an even keel.

Risk & Your Command Course

2008-05-26T05:24:00.007+08:00

During your training you will not only have to Balance The Risk as a part of your normal role as the Captain but you’ll also have to balance your own “Command Training” Risk.

Your Risk “Attitude”

Some Command Trainee’s attitudes towards risk while undergoing a Command Course is to be extremely Risk Aversive for fear of “failing”, or making a cock-up, or because they lack confidence. They become constrained by conservatism and as a result sink to become the “lowest common denominator”.

By doing this they remain well and truly within their Comfort Zone. They are fearful of taking a calculated risk and pushing themselves into their Learning Zone.

As a general rule you will probably be a little conservative and Risk Aversive during your Command Course and during the first 12 months after successfully completing the Command Course.

As your confidence, experience and expertise grows, you will naturally tend to tolerate greater risk. Your Risk Neutral region will tend towards the High Risk, High Opportunity side. You probably have much greater self-confidence and are more aware of the true nature of your abilities and skills and so can confidently handle more difficult, higher risk (and higher opportunity) situations. This doesn’t mean that you are all of a sudden more risky – it just means that you are balancing the higher risk, higher opportunity with increased and improved skills and confidence.

A better way to look at it may be that instead of becoming more of a Risk Taker, you are becoming less of a Risk Aversive Commander.

Take A Risk

This taking a calculated and balanced Risk while on your Command Course is part of the “teaching” and learning process. I personally encourage my Trainees to “take a risk”; to try something new, novel or unusual or something rarely encountered during Line flying.

I also point out to my Trainees that if they make a mistake to treat it as a powerful learning experience, not as a failure. It is only ever a failure if you don’t learn from the experience. Besides, it is better to make a mistake during Training rather than on a Check.

You must accept that you might fail; then, if you do your best and still don't win, at least you can be satisfied that you've tried. If you don't accept failure as a possibility, you don't set high goals, and you don't branch out, you don't try – you don't take the risk. (Rosalynn Carter)

You've got to take the initiative and play your game...confidence makes the difference. (Chris Evert)

One of the reasons people stop learning is that they become less and less willing to risk failure. John W. Gardner

Discuss this with your Trainer as each individual Trainer will have different views on this.

Push Yourself

After all you want to get the best possible training and push yourself towards high opportunity, but not unduly stuff up or be overly conservative by retreating backwards to low opportunity.

Life isn't worth living unless you're willing to take some big chances and go for broke. (Eliot Wiggington)

During your training you also will have to do some Command Course Risk Assessment and Management and so Balance The “Command Training” Risk. (Maybe walking a tightrope over a huge chasm is a better analogy!?)

Nobody said it would be easy!

The Four Essential “Rules Of Risk”

2008-05-24T05:12:00.014+08:00

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

If you apply the following Four Essential “Rules Of Risk” you will become a far more effective Risk Manager and Captain.

In addition, these “Rules” will assist, guide and help you to exercise good judgment and formulate sound decisions.

1. Do not accept unnecessary risk.

The key word in this rule is “unnecessary”. An unnecessary risk is any risk that if taken, will not contribute meaningfully to your flights’ accomplishment. Captains who take unnecessary risk are probably gambling with crew and passenger lives.

Aviation is by its’ very nature an inherently risky business. You face and accept risk all the time, whether you realize it or not.

You need to be constantly Balancing The Risk – achieving the “Risk Neutral” state, which is not overly “safe” (low opportunities) and not overly “dangerous” (high opportunities).

There is no advantage to accepting a course of action that results in a new, increased or unjustifiable risk if there are no meaningful benefits to be derived.

Risk should not be greater than the undertaking.

If it is not worth doing safely, then it is probably not worth doing at all.

Risk properly managed is acceptable.
2. Accept risk when the benefits outweigh the costs.

Nothing in aviation is risk free and we choose certain options that contain an element of risk because there is an opportunity or benefit to be gained. This needs to be balanced against the probability of the occurrence and the possible costs or severity of the risk.

Again you need to be Balancing The Risk. You walk the fine line of being either too risk aversive (low opportunity, but possibly overly safe) or being too risky (high opportunity, but possibly dangerous).

If you are faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself “When is the success of the task not worth the risk?”

3. Make Risk Decisions At The Appropriate Level.

What is the right level? It is the level where the decision maker has the experience and maturity to make a good decision.

Normally, this is the Captain’s job as most times you cannot defer or transfer your risk management duties due to time constraints or a lack of resources.

However, you don’t need to make all the hard decisions solely yourself. You can involve other external agencies (e.g. Aircraft Engineering Specialists, Dispatchers, Fleet Managers, Operations Managers or whoever has Operational Control of your Airlines’ aircraft). The real trick is to assign the risk accountability at the lowest possible level i.e. to the person closest to the action with the best SA, knowledge of the situation and experience.

Remember that ultimately the buck stops with you. As the Captain you are the final authority and are responsible for the safe operation and conduct of the flight.

4. Integrate Risk Management Into Planning And Execution At All Levels.

Risk management is an integral part of the planning and execution of flight operations.

You need to constantly be assessing, managing and balancing risk during all phases of flight. This includes pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight.

Risk management is an important part of the Captain’s role and you need to involve your entire team at all levels – both on the ground and in the air. This entire “team” includes not only your flight and cabin crew, but ground engineers, dispatchers, operations personnel, ATC, airline management and cargo loading, passenger handling and traffic ground staff.

The Nature Of Risk

2008-05-20T15:41:00.010+08:00

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

Is aviation a risky business?

Definitely – but that doesn’t stop us from going flying.

Consider the following statements;

Everything we do has some sort of risk (high, low or neutral) associated with it.

Life is risk.

The only people without risk are six feet under.

Risk is required to get things done.

We accept risk on an “assumed risk” basis because there is a potential benefit or opportunity to be gained.

Where there is no risk there is usually no opportunity.

Success at a risk-free endeavour is impossible.

He who risks nothing, gets nothing. (French Proverb)

Risk & Safety

You may have heard the phase “safety is paramount” (i.e. safety comes above and before all else). If that were truly the case we would be out of a job, as we would never go flying. There will always be an element of risk in anything we do (including aviation), but just because there is some form of risk does not mean that we will not attempt it. We obviously want to minimise risk or even eliminate it if possible. Our usual strategy in the aviation game is to be as safe as possible.

Being safe usually does not eliminate risk – it only reduces it.
That is where you, the Captain, come in. One of your primary goals, tasks and jobs is to constantly be a Risk Assessor and Risk Manager and to Balance The Risk that you have elected to take on, to maximise the safe, legal and efficient outcome of your flight. This Risk Management role will often dictate the decisions that you make. You will be required to decide if you, or your crew, engage in risky behaviour or activities and when, where and how much assumed risk you take on. This will have to be assessed based on your desired goals and plans.

Pilots can be “Dangerously Safe”. This is another way of saying they are extremely Risk Aversive and do not willing accept risk or will avoid risk no matter how minor. These dangerously safe pilots usually miss out on the benefits and opportunities associated with taking a considered and calculated Risk Assessment. They usually frustrate the hell out of their other crew members, as the other person cannot understand why they are not accepting some risk to achieve a better outcome.

Safety in our aviation system depends, to a great extent, upon the amount of control we exercise over our choices to take risks. (Richard S. Jensen).

Human Centred Risk

Most pilots associate risk with external factors; the weather, environment, aircraft serviceability, ATC, terrain, traffic etc.

However, risk can also be associated with internal, “human” factors. Risk is very often human centred – it is YOU!

Do you ever look at yourself as a “risk”? Poor Decision Making, lack of judgement, uncurrent, ill-disciplined, not prepared, fatigued, frustrated, lack of knowledge, emotional (both positive and negative emotions).

Often it is these “humanity” aspects that are risky. You can also gain or lose in the humanity stakes.

You may be worried about being late, not being promoted, being embarrassed, getting reprimanded. You may need to, satisfy your need to be valued, feed your ego, fulfil other’s expectations, be seen as competent, to achieve a personal convenient outcome or be accepted by your peers and/or superiors. You may want to get home, gain or avoid a financial advantage/disadvantage, seek enjoyment or thrills. You may be personally, over/under confident, happy, sad, frustrated, angry or be Risk Aversive or a Risk Taker.

These human factors also have positive and negative opportunities and outcomes and these are the human motivators that may affect what types of risk you accept. These “human” factor risks could be seen as illogical and irrational and have no place in aviation Risk Assessment and Management. But you (and your crew) ARE human and therefore you WILL be affected by these humanity risk factors.

The Weakest & Strongest Link

Accident and incident reports have time and again shown that pilots are very often the weakest link in the accident or incident chain (or in other words, the highest risk factor) and could be considered to be the weakest link in the chain of events. So you and your team are a risk factor that you will have to consider.

But accidents or incidents are the negative outcomes of possibly poor or inadequate Judgement and Decision Making. They are also an extremely tiny minority of the millions of flights that are undertaken.

The vast majority of flights will have a successful outcome. And one of the reasons for this overwhelmingly successful rate is the complex and correct (not always optimal, but nevertheless correct and safe) Judgement and Decision making that the human element (you) of aviation makes continually on every flight. We pilots are irreplaceable (at least at the moment!), as computers and machines cannot match our flexibility, deductive, analytical and decision making abilities in rapidly changing, complex, volatile and ambiguous situations. So you could also be considered to be the strongest link in the chain of events.

As the Captain you are the Leader, the primary Decision Maker and Risk Assessor and Manager. You will most likely determine if you and your team are the weakest or the strongest link on any particular flight. Hopefully you will favour your strengths and work on improving your weaknesses.

The Bottom Line

At the end of the day we all just want to go home, see our significant other and ankle biters and have a beer (BBQ optional). A smoking hole is not a good option.

Be the best Risk Assessor and Manager that you can be and Balance The Risk so that you can have that beer.

Risk Definitions

2008-05-20T14:50:00.010+08:00

This a series of articles about Risk, which are a part of Command Judgement and Decision Making (Risk Introduction - Part 7 is here)

The following are definitions that will be used throughout the other Risk articles.

Hazard

Any current real or potential condition that can overtly or covertly lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event.

A hazard is the SOURCE of risk.

A hazard is always a PRESENT event – it is what is happening or affecting you right now.

Risk

The probability and severity of a loss linked to a hazard that is not adequately controlled or eliminated.

Risk is always a FUTURE event – the hazard has yet to occur or be experienced. Risk is a potential hazard.

Risk Formula

You will never be able to accurately quantify the product of the various risk factors (at least not in flight when you will definitely lack the time, resources and brain power).

The Risk Formula is a guide for you to “estimate” or assess the risk of a particular situation when you do your Risk Assessment, with the limited information available to you, the lack of resources and the time constraints imposed on you in-flight.

RISK = SEVERITY x PROBABILITY x EXPOSURE
Severity is the extent of a possible loss. The severity lies in a range from a slight, minor loss to a catastrophic, total loss.

Probability is the likelihood that a hazard will or could potentially cause a loss.

Exposure is the amount of times an event (usually a repeated event) occurs, or the length of time an event is experienced.

Risk Assessment

The detection of hazards and the application of “measurement” to the level of risk that they represent (see Risk Formula).

Risk Management

The process of defining and controlling risk.

A major function of your role as the Captain.

Risk Neutral

Where the risk being accepted meets the requirements of the desired action.

Low Risk is low opportunity and may be overly “safe”.

High Risk is high opportunity and may be overly “dangerous”.

Risk Neutral is somewhere between these two extremes and is dependant on the actual situation and your perception of the risk involved.

Balancing The Risk

Risk Assessment and Management such that a Risk Neutral situation is obtained for the current situation. Read about Balancing The Risk here.

Gambling

Proceeding with little or no Risk Management process.

Usually associated with taking unnecessary chances as a result of poor or no judgement and unnecessary risk. Safety is usually degraded.

Judgement & Decision Making (Part 7 - Risk)

2008-05-20T14:38:00.010+08:00

This is the seventh of a series of articles which will look at Command Judgement and Decision Making. (Part 6 - Define The Problem) is under construction.

Each part needs to be read in the sequential order presented, as this is the way I believe you mentally go about using your judgement to make a decision. There is no point in reading Part 7 before Part 6.

Risk
Risk is a big subject.

A big, complicated subject that, whether you like it or not, YOU as the Captain have to have a “firm, slippery grip” on. One of your prime jobs as the Captain is to be a Risk Assessor and a Risk Manager and you have to be adept at Balancing The Risk.

(Click over there).

Risk Management is an essential step in the Judgement and Decision Making model being explained here. Risk and your perception of it is a major factor in applying your Judgement to reach a sound and safe decision.

To make this big dry and, at times tedious, subject a little more palatable I’ll break it down into smaller risk components. Just follow the links below to get to the indicated subjects.

Ensure you read Risk Definitions first as all the other articles will use these basic definitions.

It is probably best if you read all of the subjects and not just the ones that interest you, as the separate individual risk subjects are part of a whole – like a jigsaw puzzle. The whole is definitely more than the sum of the individual components.

Risk Definitions

The Nature Of Risk

The Four Essential "Rules Of Risk"

Balancing The Risk

Part 8 is under construction.

This is only MY attempt at analysing Judgement and Decision Making – I’m just a professional aviator, not a psychologist so my thoughts may not conform with academia, but it is based on a real pilot’s perspective. What would you rather have; a psychologist explaining aviation or an aviator explaining psychology?

I welcome any feedback about this article. Please add YOUR pilot input (or if any psychologists read this, your thoughts) by using the COMMENTS link below.